SPEAKERS

Alex Jenson, Kyungmi Choi

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Alex Jenson  00:08

You’re listening to Koreabizcast with the KBLA I’m your host Alex Jensen. It’s Monday, February 28. And it’s great to have you with us. Thank you to Eastpoint Partners for making this episode possible as they offer an unparalleled Asia wide network of relationships with corporates, governments and investors. More than ever, it feels like we need to maintain and strengthen relationships with yet more heartbreak unfolding in Ukraine over the weekend, not to mention inspiring resilience and a North Korean missile test to add to the geopolitical drama, adding further attention with just over a week until the presidential election here. And there was another big twist on that front over the weekend too or at least the promise of one, our reporter can make choices here with another weekly election update as we approach the Big Day on March 9. Thank you Kyungmi.

Kyungmi Choi  01:01

Thank you for having me, as always, Alex.

Alex Jenson  01:04

And as we’ve done before, let’s start by looking at the latest polls. The candidates are the main rival parties. They have been so close lately, haven’t they?

Kyungmi Choi  01:13

Right, so in one poll conducted by Gallup Korea on 1,000 adults from Tuesday to Thursday last week, the ruling Democratic Parties Lee Jae Myung had 30% support while the main opposition People Power Party nominee Yoon Suk yeol had 37% approval. And compared to the same survey from the previous week, Lee’s rating went up by four percentage points while Yoon’s fell by four percentage points. And in the previous survey, the two had a 7% gap with Yoon and the lead and the gap was actually outside the margin of error. So it’s notable that the gap in the latest poll was within the margin of error with one percentage point and Gallup Korea analyzed this as a result of the merger negotiations between conservative parties falling through and Ahn Cheol Soo of the People’s Party came third with 12% or by one percentage point compared to a week earlier, followed by the Justice Parties Shim Sangjung with 4%. In terms of different age groups, Lee and Yoon had similar levels of support from those in their 20s with 28 and 26%, respectively, while  Lee Jae Myung was in the lead by a wide margin for support from people in their 30s with 30% compared to Yoon’s 26%. And this was also the age group that had the highest rate of participants who didn’t give the response regarding who they would vote for between these two candidates.

Alex Jenson  02:31

So in two recent polls that asked participants if the presidential election was tomorrow, who would you vote for? The main opposition candidate was in the lead.

Kyungmi Choi  02:41

Right, so local news outlet News One commissioned Embry in public to conduct a survey on 1,014 adults from last Friday to Saturday, and 42.4% chose Yun and 40.2% chose Lee and this 2.2 percentage points gap was within the margin of error. And this was the first time for the approval rating of both candidates to go over the 40% mark in this particular poll, and both candidates also saw their support rise by 5.8 percentage points and 4.5 percentage points respectively. I’ll compare it to the survey conducted from February 5 to the sixth and Ahn Cheol Soo was third with 9% and Shim Sangjung followed with 2.8% support, and both saw their ratings fall by around one percentage point and in a question asking who they think would be elected as president regardless of who they actually support. 46.8% said Yoon Suk yeol and 40% said Lee Jae Myung. And in another poll conducted by research view from Tuesday to Thursday on 1,000 adults, 46% responded that they would vote for Yoon Suk yeol, which was followed by Lee Jae Myung with 41%. And Ahn Cheol Soo with 7%. And Shim Sangjung was 2%. And compared to the previous survey conducted by this holster a week earlier, Lee and Yoon support rose and fell by two percentage points respectively. And this marks the first time in four weeks for their gap to be within the margin of error. And 35% of those in their 20s said they would vote for Yoou and compared to Lee 32%. And for those in their 30s Lee was in the lead with 43% showing a four percentage point gap with Yoon, and Lee support among those in their 20s and 30s. Each rose by four percentage points, while US approval fell by 11 and eight percentage points respectively. But Yoon did see his support rise among people in their 50s to 70s by three six and six percentage points respectively, while Lee support fell by six percentage points for people in their 50s and two percentage points for the 60s and 70s each. And the survey also asked which statement the participants agreed with more in relation to the election, or that the Democratic Party should retain power and or that there must be a change of government to an opposition party. And 38% chose the former statement while 52% I chose the latter. And the rating for people who agreed with the need for government change has exceeded 50%. In this particular poll since late September when it was first conducted.

Alex Jenson  05:10

It’s really shaping up to be perhaps the most unpredictable election in modern Korean history. And actually, some experts have been reflecting that.

Kyungmi Choi  05:18

Right in the past opinion polls conducted even a month before the election would widely reflect the outcome of the election itself. But local media outlets and experts say that that’s not the case anymore. Compared to the past when voters used to cast their ballots based on what regions, the candidates were from or their political background,  that’s now shifting to voters looking at the candidates philosophy on state administration and morality, so it makes it more difficult to predict the outcome, and Lee Jae Myung was generally in the lead until the beginning of the year. But that trend was reversed when the main opposition party handled its internal conflict and showed efforts to unify the party, and some of the candidates comments, pledges and various corruption allegations surrounding the candidates themselves, as well as their family members appear to have affected the poll since then. And starting this Thursday, pollsters will not be allowed to disclose survey results in line with the Public Official Election Act. And this is to prevent a poll results from influencing swing voters and deciding who they’ll vote for. And based on various polls conducted so far, around 10 to 20% of the country are known to be swing voters. But that ratio could grow even further when taking into consideration that some voters may change their minds at the very last minute, and this was also known to be the case in the 19th presidential election. According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted during the two days following the 2017 election, on May 9, 32% of the 1,008 respondents said they only chose who to vote for within a week before election day.

Alex Jenson  06:49

I talked about a potential twist. And this was to be expected because it’s it’s kind of a huge deal. But a potential conservative merger was it’s been the narrative in the last few weeks until Ahn Cheol Soo, the previous weekend had basically said no, I’m not doing this. And then the main opposition’s Yoon Suk yeol over the weekend tried to make a last minute effort to still combine together with on knowing how influential it could be if they could unify their candidacy. So what happened

Kyungmi Choi  07:23

So Yoon Suk yeol canceled all his planned activities yesterday before holding on emergency press conference at 1pm. And yesterday was known to be practically the deadline for deciding on a conservative merger because the ballots will be printed starting today. And Yoon said that he had been doing his best for a conservative merger with untrust su until this very moment during this emergency presser as he said that he’s been doing so with a sincere heart and that the two sides have held behind the scenes negotiations with all representatives from the two sides who had full authority over the merger talks. And union was represented by his close aide and PPP lawmaker Jang Jaewon and Ahn Cheol Soo by Lee Taegyu, who was the head of Ahn’s campaign team. And Yoon claimed that the two representatives had reached a final agreement and the result was reported to the candidates themselves. And what was left for the negotiations was only the final stage of the two coordinating their schedule for a meeting. And he further argued that on the previous night, Ahn asked for more time to come up with a good reason to withdraw his earlier announcement to run the race until the end, and that he was planning to visit ons house for their meeting to show him respect. But Yoon said that he never heard a response from on regarding this suggestion and Ahn then unilaterally notified Yoon yesterday morning that a deal on a single opposition candidacy was off and United that he will still wait for a response from onside and not lose hope for a possibility of a merger for a change of government. Meanwhile, I’m headed to Yeosu of South Jeolla province for his campaign activities yesterday. And when speaking to reporters afterwards, he generally refuted all the claims made by Yoon. Ahn said that his campaign chief did meet with the PPP side after the main opposition first made a proposal but that wasn’t as a representative for merger talks. But just to hear what the PPP had to say, and answered that the direction and methods of a merger proposed by Yoon side was insufficient to guarantee trust, so he was unable to reach a final conclusion by yesterday morning, and Ahn showed dissatisfaction towards Yoon arguing that the two sides never discussed whether to run a public survey to decide which one of them would run as a single candidate saying that there was no response from Yun regarding this proposal and Ahn also said that what he’s heard from Yoon side were not worth considering.

Alex Jenson  09:47

So given the difficulty in merging it really just makes these polls even harder to read. Frankly, there is naturally a possibility that Ahn Cheol Soo could eat into the Lee Jae Myung as well, it’s kind of misleading to describe him as purely a conservative candidate given that in the past he merged with current president Moon Jae In, but it’s definitely seen as being more of a blow to Yun zoegirl At this point, and let’s broaden out further to include the fourth candidate that we haven’t spoken about a lot. That is Shim Sangjung because the four main candidates who put in two rounds of TV debates last week, the first on Monday, focused on economic issues.

Kyungmi Choi  10:31

Right so the four revealed are thoughts on what the next government should focus on and Lee Jae Myung said growth by resolving unfairness Yoon Suk yeol said creating a digital data economy. Ahn Cheol Soo said breaking away from a bureaucratic economy and Shim Sangjung said solving on fairness and transition to a green economy and regarding how to overcome the economic crisis resulting from the pandemic. Lee Jae Myung said that he will draw up supplementary budgets or emergency executive orders to support small businesses. And Yoon Suk yeol also stressed the need for compensation but also highlighted the importance of the government’s fiscal soundness. And he mentioned the extra budget bill that passed the parliament last Monday, saying that the government only came up with 14 trillion won in the supplementary budget, as the ruling party failed to persuade it to send a 50 trillion won extra budget. And the candidates of the main rival parties also slammed each other for corruption allegations involving their spouses including allegations that Yoon Suk yeol’s wife Kim Gunhee was involved in stock manipulation by Deutsche motors, and they also spent a considerable amount of time attacking each other over a controversial land development project in Daejang Dong of Sonam City, which was conducted when Lee Jae Myung was mayor of the city and Yun accused of Lee being responsible for allowing the project to end up giving immense profits to the private sector. And Lee accused Yoon Suk yeol of being involved in the scandal showing transcripts from parts of recorded phone conversations between Kim Manbae the owner of an asset management company at the center of the scandal, and another owner identified figure with Kim making comments like Yoon Suk yeol would die with the cards I hold.

Alex Jenson  12:10

And a number of topics then came up during Friday’s debate focusing on diplomacy and security at a very sensitive time. With Russia’s recent attack on Ukraine, which is clearly ongoing.

Kyungmi Choi  12:23

Right, the ruling party’s candidate emphasized the importance of a political leaders diplomatic capability, and he pointed out that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, became the country’s leader after only having six months of political experience and is causing a major clash by provoking Russia with a hasty promise of his country’s admission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, and he called it a diplomatic failure and compare the situation to how the PPP candidate Yoon Suk yeol  is aggressive in his diplomatic stance, making vows such as establishing South Korea’s capability to launch preemptive strikes against the North. But this comments all faced a lot of criticism from home and abroad for belittling the Ukrainian leader. And he ended up issuing an apology on his Facebook page the following day. He apologized for causing misunderstanding to the people of Ukraine, saying that he clearly criticized Russia’s invasion quicker than any other candidates and has been showing support towards Ukraine. And he also clarified that he was criticizing Yoon’s uncertain views on diplomacy and security. Now going back to the debate, Yoon Suk yeol also stated that he believes a war can only be prevented when a country is capable of launching preemptive strikes, and that the case of Ukraine shows that a country cannot protect security and peace with pacts and he was referring to agreements that sought to end war in all Ukraine’s Donbas region. And Yoon can also compare the situation to the current government and Lee Jae Myung’s emphasis on striking an end of war declaration with North Korea without pushing for such a declaration is the same as Ukraine’s case if Pyongyang refuses to give up its nuclear program. And Shim Sangjung showed doubt to Yoon’s stands saying that getting the North to acknowledge that nuclear weapons will bring devastation is the only way to ensure proper deterrence. Ahn Cheol Soo supported the idea of Seoul engaging in talks with Pyongyang, but also said that Seoul must be firm and its opposition to the North’s nuclear program and other publications, while also suggesting Seoul Washington nuclear sharing treaty.

Alex Jenson  14:27

Just meanwhile, while on the subject, we might note that the government that is still in power has expressed strong regret over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has said it will join international sanctions against Moscow without going further with individual sanctions yet, given the types of trade we’re talking about that there could be a significant impact that we’ll want to be aware of in this country.

Kyungmi Choi  14:50

Right. This move will affect a total of 57 items and technologies that are on the USA sanctions list against Russia. And this includes major Korean export items such as semiconductor, automobile, electronics, information security equipment, laser and sensors, and the sanctions band directly exporting goods from all the US to Russia and the actions on exports from third countries will be determined by the foreign direct product rule, which consider products using the sanctions items and technologies as being produced in the US and require a separate review for exports to be approved. And Seoul’s trade ministry says that it’s still in the process of analyzing the situation and estimating what kinds of impact there would be. And according to the Korea International Trade Association, all this country’s exports to Russia in 2021 came to 9.9 8 billion US dollars. Or this makes Russia the 12th biggest export country and accounted for 1.6% of the overall trade volume and back in 2014, following Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea, Korea’s exports to Russia fell sharply by 54% or from $10.1 billion, in 2014 to $4.69 billion in 2015. And according to the association around 40 Korean companies, including Samsung and LG Electronics, Hundai Motor, Kia, Audi all operate factories and marketing orans in Russia, and the government’s at that local firms that see financial damage as a result of the sanctions would be eligible to receive various trade finance support measures, such as an extension to the export credit guarantee program. And the government is also launching an emergency financial support program worth 2 trillion won. Meanwhile, Korea’s trade with Ukraine is relatively small at $9 million as of last year.

Alex Jenson  16:42

Thanks very much for the details, something to be immediately aware of. But obviously we’ll be watching closely for the evolution of this situation. Kyungmi Choi, a pleasure as ever, despite the difficulty of the circumstances. And we’ll definitely be looking forward to catching up with you again next week when the election is completely upon us.

Kyungmi Choi  17:03

I look forward to speaking with you again next week, Alex.

Alex Jenson  17:06

And in addition to thanking Kyungmi, I’d like to say thank you to everybody for joining us as a listener. We’re really proud of the support that we’ve been getting, and hope to continue to spread the word maybe you can help do that. By sharing this and letting people know about what we’re doing at Koreabizcast. You can also get in touch via LinkedIn by searching KBLA or emailing info@kbla.net. And finally, I also want to say thank you to Eastpoint Partners for making today’s episode possible. See you again on Wednesday. Enjoy the national holiday tomorrow in the meantime,

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